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Vietnam Macroeconomy Report Q1/2026

Title Vietnam Macroeconomy Report Q1/2026
Category: Economic Reports
Source: Bao Viet Securities
Industry:
Business:
Detail:
13/04/2026
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pdf
English
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Summary:

GDP in Q1 2026 grew by 7.83% YoY, higher than Q1 2025 (which increased by 7.07%). Growth in Q1 was driven by factors such as retail sales of goods, consumer service revenue, and total social investment.

Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in March 2026 increased by 12.05%, accelerating compared to the first two months of the year, bringing Q1 growth to 10.9%, the highest level since Q4 2022.

Export turnover of goods in Q1 2026 reached USD 122.93 billion, up 19.36% compared to Q1 2025. Meanwhile, imports reached USD 126.57 billion, up 26.7% YoY. Imports grew faster than exports, resulting in a trade deficit of USD 3.6 billion in Q1 2026.

The industrial production index in Q1 2026 is estimated to have increased by 9.0% YoY (Q1 2025 increased by 8.3%). Several industries recorded strong growth, including metal production (+22.9%); chemical and chemical product manufacturing (+18.2%); motor vehicle production (+14.7%); and mining (+5.42%).

State budget investment in Q1 2026 reached VND 132,278 billion, equivalent to 14.5% of the annual plan and up 12.1% year-on-year. Investment from households and the private sector, and foreign direct investment, increased by 9.8% YoY and 11.76% YoY, respectively, higher than the growth rates in Q1 2025.

Average CPI in the first three months of the year increased by 3.51% YoY. The transportation group contributed 1.2 percentage points to CPI growth in March and 0.1 percentage points in Q1 overall. Construction materials and other goods and services groups also contributed to the CPI increase.

As of March 31, 2026, the VND depreciated by 0.16% YTD against the USD. Pressure on the exchange rate increased amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.


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