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Vietnam Macroeconomy Report May 2026

Title Vietnam Macroeconomy Report May 2026
Category: Strategy report
Source: Bao Viet Securities
Industry:
Business:
Detail:
05/06/2026
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pdf
English
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Summary:

Total retail sales of goods and consumer services in May 2026 reached VND647.1 trillion, rising by 0.5% MoM and 11.8% YoY. The service sector showed stronger growth, led by accommodation and food services (+15.4% YoY), travel services (+15.4% YoY), and other services (+10.8% YoY). In 5M2026, total retail sales of goods and consumer services rose by 11.2% YoY. Excluding the price factor, total retail sales expanded by a mere 6.1%, underperforming the 7.4% rate in the same period in 2025.

In May 2026, merchandise export turnover reached an estimated USD46.93 billion, up 2.1% MoM and 18.0% YoY. Merchandise imports stood at USD52.14 billion, up 4.3% MoM and 33.8% YoY. In 5M2026, exports grew by 19.5% YoY and imports went up by 30.8% YoY, resulting in a merchandise trade deficit of USD13.8 billion.

The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in May is estimated to increase by 3.3% MoM and 8.8% YoY. Cumulatively in the first five months, industrial production expanded by 9.1% YoY, marking the highest growth rate in the past four years. This was mainly driven by a 9.0% YoY expansion in manufacturing, as May's PMI showed further improvement in export orders.

Investment capital from the State budget stood at VND64.97 trillion in May, rising by 10.2% YoY. In 5M2026, State budget capital disbursement met 24% of the annual target, growing by 11.2% YoY (vs. 22.5% of the target and a 21.1% YoY growth in 5M2025).

May CPI ticked up 0.29% MoM and 5.6% YoY. Cumulatively in 5M2026, CPI grew by 4.31% YoY. Last month’s CPI uptick was largely fueled by the housing, utilities, and construction materials category, which jumped 0.96% MoM.

The VND lost 0.06% YTD against the USD as of May 29, 2026. The USD/VND exchange rate was fairly stable this month, supported by rising domestic interest rates YTD and a flat DXY Index throughout May.


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