The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in April 2024 has shown positive growth for the second consecutive month, at 0.8% MoM and 6.3% YoY. However, for the first four months, the IIP has increased by 6% YoY. With the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) returning above the 50 threshold and the employment index showing positive growth for the second consecutive month, we believe that the IIP will maintain its upward trend in the coming months​;

Total retail sales of goods and services in April 2024 are estimated to reach VND 522.08 trillion, increasing by 9.04% YoY and 1.98% MoM. The increase in employment is expected to support the continued recovery of consumption;

Regarding public investment, capital investment from the state budget in April 2024 reached VND 43.955 trillion, up 9.76% YoY and 16.04% MoM. Accumulated over the first four months of the year, the total value of public investment disbursement reached VND 142.843 trillion, an increase of 8.3% YoY, completing 21.09% of the annual plan. With a high level of capital allocation, we believe that the disbursement of public investment will proceed smoothly this year, and we expect to complete 95-100% of the plan set at the beginning of the year;

The CPI increased by 4.4% YoY in February, the strongest increase since January 2023. The rising prices of grain food, food, and fuel are expected to continue putting pressure on the CPI in the near future, as the comparison base for these commodities is relatively low from the same period last year, forecasting that the CPI will continue to increase in the range of 4-4.5% in the months of Q2;

As of May 1, 2024, the VND has depreciated by 4.39% against the USD. The VND, along with many other currencies, is under devaluation pressure as the Fed may prolong holding high interest rates. This pressure is expected to persist in the coming months, which may lead the SBV to consider continuing to use tools to support the exchange rate, including issuing promissory notes, selling foreign currency, increasing the central exchange rate, and even considering raising interest rates if the USD strengthens further.