| Summary: |
- Intensified selling pressure in March due to the Middle East conflict caused the VN-Index to end Q1 with a 6.2%. Most sectors recorded negative performance following the outbreak of the war in early March.
- The average trading value reached VND 35.005 billion in Q1, marking the highest quarterly liquidity level over the past five years. Market buoyancy in the first two months of the year was driven by state-owned-related enterprises, followed by heavy selling pressure amid the sharp market downturn in March, which contributed to strong liquidity in Q1.
- Foreign capital flow adopted a more cautious stance in emerging and frontier markets following the Middle East conflict. In Vietnam, foreign investors net sold VND17,485 billion in March, lifting the year-to-date net sell value to over VND30 trillion.
- Earnings for companies in the BVS80 basket are projected to grow by 9.5% in Q1 and accelerate to 11.2% for the full year.
- A market rebound is expected in April after a war-induced correction, driven by upgrade prospects, earnings reports, and the AGM season. Nevertheless, the broader quarterly outlook remains challenged by mounting inflation and FX volatility. These factors limit the scope for monetary easing, keeping interest rates elevated and ultimately weighing on market liquidity. The core strategy is to capitalize on market corrections to selectively accumulate stocks with strong fundamentals, clear earnings growth, and stable operations that are resilient to external shocks, especially when valuations are deeply discounted due to broader market volatility.
bvsc-market-outlook-report-q2-2026.pdf
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