The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in February 2024 decreased by 18% MoM and 6.8% YoY. However, in the first 2 months, IIP still increased by 5.7% YoY. With the PMI index remaining above 50 points for the second consecutive month, we believe that the IIP will record positive growth again in March​;

Total retail sales of goods and services in February 2024 were estimated at VND 509.7 trillion, up by 8.49% YoY but down by 2.32% MoM. The MoM decline stemmed from seasonal factors due to the Lunar New Year holiday with fewer days than the average month;

Regarding public investment, investment capital from the state budget in February reached VND 26,881 billion, down by 10.55% YoY and 18.37% MoM. Accumulated in the first 2 months, the total value of public investment disbursement reached VND 59,811 billion, up by 4.97% YoY, completing 8.83% of the 2024 plan. With many projects that have had investment policies approved, have specific implementation plans and have gone through preparation stages such as completing documents and land clearance in previous years, we believe that the public investment will proceed smoothly this year, and it is expected that 95-100% of the plan set out at the beginning of the year will be completed;

The CPI increased by 3,98% YoY, the strongest gain since February 2023. Compared to the previous month, CPI also increased sharply by 1.04%, the highest since September 2023. The increase in prices of food and fuel will continue to put pressure on the CPI when the comparative level of these goods is relatively low in the same period, foreshadowing a CPI hike of 3.5-4.5% in the first half of 2024;

As of 03/01/2024, the VND depreciated by 1.57% against the USD. The VND and many other currencies are under depreciating pressure as concerns that the Fed may be slower in reducing interest rates than initially expected increase. However, in the coming months, pressure from the USD will ease, while the interest rate gap between VND and USD in the interbank market has narrowed, so exchange rate pressure is expected to ease compared to the past 2 months.

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