The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in January 2026 grew a strong 21.54% YoY, while softening In the first two months of the year, Vietnam’s exports increased 18.87% YoY, while imports rose 26.34% YoY, higher than the average of previous years. Cumulatively since the beginning of the year, Vietnam recorded a trade deficit of USD 2.81 billion. The recovery in export orders has increased demand for imported production inputs. The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) in the first two months rose 10.4% compared to the same period last year. The outlook for manufacturing activity in the coming period will depend significantly on the outlook for export orders, which are currently being affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in February is estimated at VND 613.7 trillion, down 2.96% MoM but up 8.48% YoY. Retail sales of goods continued to account for the largest share (76.46%), with 8.77% YoY growth. Spending on gasoline accounts for about 5% of average per capita consumption in Vietnam. A sharp and prolonged increase in gasoline prices would have spillover effects, reducing spending on other goods.

In the first two months of the year, realized investment from the state budget is estimated at VND 83.5 trillion, equivalent to 9.4% of the annual plan and 11.5% higher than the same period last year.

CPI in February increased 3.35% YoY. On average, CPI in the first two months rose 2.94% YoY. The largest contributor to CPI growth in February 2026 was housing and construction material costs, as raw material prices increased due to the peak construction season and inventory accumulation for public investment projects. In March, gasoline prices will be a key factor influencing CPI.

As of March 5, VND/USD exchange rate stood at 25,996 VND/USD. Thus, the VND appreciated 0.3% YTD against the USD. Earlier in the year, the VND had appreciated up to 1.34% against the USD. In the short term, exchange rate pressure may increase due to the risk of capital outflows.