Macroeconomy

• Exchange rate: Pressure may persist in Q2, coming from the USD (high policy base dictated by the Fed) and demand for imports.
• Inflation: Pressure comes from items with a large proportion, including Food, Housing & Construction Materials, Transportation, and Foodstuffs. In addition, service fees for some groups such as Education and Healthcare are maintaining an upward trend compared to the same period. Pressure may remain strong in Q2. CPI is expected to climb by 4.5% in the coming months.
• Monetary policy easing faces challenges from exchange rate pressures and inflation. However, with the goal of supporting the economy, the lending rate level may continue to decrease further.
• Exports have returned to positive growth. With the recovery of imports, the business confidence of enterprises and the improvement of employment indices, production and exports are expected to maintain an upward trend in the coming months.
• With the main growth drivers coming from manufacturing and exports, while consumption and investment have improved compared to Q1 but are still lower than the years before the Covid-19 pandemic, along with the ongoing pressure from exchange rates and inflation, GDP growth for Q2 is forecasted to be around 6%.

Stock market

• In Q1, domestic cash flow strengthened the gains of the securities market despite foreign investors’ net selling.
• Q1/2024 market overview – Uptrend with surging liquidity.
• The Fed's slow interest rate cuts could affect the short-term market trends.
• Upgrade to FTSE’s category of secondary emerging market – opportunities for large-cap stocks.
• VnIndex remains attractive thanks to the rebounding performances of companies in 2024.
• VnIndex may reach 1,300-1,350 points in 2024.

Q1 Profit outlook

• The export-oriented sectors (textiles, wood & wood products) have shown a good recovery, especially at the end of Q1, partly due to the low base from the same period last year, and the better prospects from the markets (the inventory/sales ratio in the US retail sector is still lower than pre-pandemic levels, and the decline in consumption in Europe shows signs of stabilizing).
• Retail, distribution, and consumption have also recovered robustly, mainly due to the low base in Q1/2023 and a few important macroeconomic indicators continuing to maintain good levels.
• Brokerage is also forecasted to have impressive results thanks to positive market liquidity in Q1.

2024 Overview – Wide-scale recovery

• Despite domestic and global challenges, the performance of listed companies is forecasted to improve in 2024. Industries that declined in 2023 are expected to rebound, while those that did not decline in 2023 will continue to maintain their growth trajectory.
• The growth momentum for NPAT in 2024 comes from the Finance sector, accounting for nearly 60% of the profits of listed companies, with the Banking sector alone contributing ~55% of the profit.
• For the non-financial group: The growth drivers mainly come from the low base of 2023, the recovery of job sources, in addition to improved consumer sentiment and cost-management-oriented business restructuring.