Macroeconomy

• Industrial Production Index (IIP) in August continued its upward trend, with a growth of 2.2% MoM and 8.5% YoY. However, the manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.4 in August, down from 52.4 the previous month. With new orders continuing to decline, the outlook for the manufacturing sector in the remaining months remains challenging;
• The total retail sales of goods and consumer services in August were estimated at VND 588.19 trillion, an increase of 9.59% YoY. Retail sales of goods continued to dominate, accounting for 76.22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.23% — the highest in the past three years. However, given the weak consumer demand in the first half of the year and the delayed effects of support policies, achieving the 12% growth target for domestic consumption in 2025 remains a significant challenge;
• Regarding public investment, state budget-funded investment in August reached VND 83.833 trillion, up 8.07% MoM and 34.6% YoY. In 8M2025, the total value of disbursed investment capital reached VND 463.21 trillion, completing over 50% of the annual target, with a year-on-year increase of 27.51%. With positive growth momentum, disbursement progress is expected to continue to accelerate in the remaining months of the year, aiming to achieve 90-100% of the annual target;
• CPI rose by 3.24% YoY in August. In the final months of 2025, several supporting factors are helping to curb the CPI increase, including: a more than 12% YoY drop in pork price by early September, easing pressure on the Food group; a 30.5% YoY decrease in rice prices, supporting the Foodstuff group; the tuition fee exemption policy for the 2025–2026 school year; and the continued downward trend in the Postal & Telecommunications sector. We maintain our forecast that the full-year CPI will increase by only 3.5-4%, lower than the government’s target of 4.5-5%,
• As of September 3, 2025, the VND depreciated by 3.42%, and decreased by 0.58% MoM in August alone. We believe that the current trend of the USD/VND exchange rate is still under control, but it will be an important factor to monitor, as it could impact the monetary policy decisions of the SBV in the coming period.

Stock market

• At the end of August, VN-Index increased by 179.69 points to 1,682.21 points, equivalent to +11.96% compared to the end of the previous month and an increase of 32.79% since the beginning of the year.
• The large-cap group continues to be the leader of the overall market, particularly the Banking and Financial stocks group.
• The average trading value across the three exchanges in August reached VND 55,122 billion/session, an increase of 39.58% compared to the previous month, making it the highest liquidity month ever.
• Foreign investors returned to net selling in August in EM markets. The pressure from the depreciation of the VND and profit-taking also led to increased selling activity in Vietnam.
• In September, the market is likely to maintain a positive trend as support policies continue, the valuation level has room for improvement, and factors creating expectations such as the prospect of market upgrade. However, short-term corrections may occur, given the strong market increase and some existing short-term pressures such as exchange rate pressure and high margin levels.