Macroeconomy

• Industrial Production Index (IIP) in April 2025 continued its upward trend, with a growth of 1.42% MoM and 8.85% YoY. However, the PMI dropped to 45.6 points – the lowest since May 2023. With a decline in new orders and new export orders, combined with business sentiment at its lowest point in nearly 4 years (comparable to the period during the COVID-19 outbreak), the outlook for the manufacturing sector is facing significant challenges. Growth in the IIP is likely to slow down in May compared to recent months;
• The total retail sales of goods and consumer services in April were estimated at VND 582.06 trillion, an increase of 11.15% YoY. The services sector saw stronger growth than retail goods, as retail goods only grew by 8.77% YoY, much lower than the overall growth rate of 11.15%. The recovery of retail goods still shows difficulties, especially for non-essential consumer goods. In the coming months, consumption is expected to continue recovering, as the peak season for tourism approaches, with the services sector continuing to outperform the retail goods sector;
• Regarding public investment, state budget-funded investment in April 2025 reached VND 48.71 trillion, up 10.78% MoM and 12% YoY. By the end of April, total disbursed public investment capital was VND 165.57 trillion, achieving over 18% of the annual plan, a 16.29% YoY increase. Many projects have been actively expedited for commencement and completion in April (80 projects, with a total capital of VND 445 trillion, including VND 140 trillion for completed projects and VND 305 trillion for ongoing projects). Key national celebrations in 2025 are expected to boost public investment, aiming to complete the disbursement target of over VND 885 trillion;
• The CPI rose by 3.12% YoY in April. Pressure from the housing and construction materials group is increasing, while the rate of increase in food, medicine, and healthcare services has significantly slowed down compared to previous months. The transportation group continues to help alleviate inflationary pressure as fuel prices remain significantly lower than in the same period last year. We maintain the forecast that the CPI for the entire year will increase by 3-3.5%, lower than the Government’s target of 4.5-5%;
• Up to May 6, 2025, the VND depreciated by 1.93%. Pressure from the USD has eased, as the DXY dropped by 4.55% MoM to 99.47 points – the lowest level in the past three years. Currently, we maintain our forecast that the VND will fluctuate within a ±3% range for the entire year of 2025.

Stock market

• The market reacted negatively when Vietnam was placed on the list of countries subject to a high retaliatory tariff of 46%.
• VN-Index lost 80.8 points to 1,226.3 points in April, largely due to the impact of the US retaliatory tariff news. The Oil & Gas sector experienced a more significant decline compared to the broader market, primarily driven by the drop in oil prices.
• The average trading volume on the HSX in April increased to VND 23,417 billion, up 12.2% compared to the previous month. However, in May, the market may trade more cautiously as investors await news about trade policy updates from the US.
• Concerns about higher tariffs from the US led foreign investors to ramp up net selling in April. After the news of tariff delays was released, we believe foreign capital inflows may improve in sectors less affected by tariffs and in companies with strong fundamentals. However, the improvement may not be significant, as uncertainties surrounding US trade policies still remain.
• The market recorded a slowdown in earnings growth in Q1 2025. The growth in net profit during the first quarter has not yet reflected the impact of retaliatory tariffs on businesses.