Macroeconomy

• Industrial Production Index (IIP) in October 2025 continued to record positive growth, rising by 2.4% MoM and 10.8% YoY. Overall, for the first 10 months, the IIP increased by 9.2% YoY. The manufacturing PMI rose sharply to 54.5 points in October, the highest level in more than a year. With the number of new orders increasing rapidly, the IIP is likely to continue recording high growth of 10–11% in the remaining two months of 2025;
• Total retail sales of goods and consumer services in October were estimated at VND 598.43 trillion, up 7.23% YoY. Of this, retail sales of goods continued to account for the majority share (75.64%), growing 5.73% YoY. This is the lowest YoY growth rate in two years, reflecting the negative impact of natural disasters and flooding. The effects of these natural disasters are likely to persist into November, though with decreasing intensity. However, the slowdown in consumption poses a significant challenge for this sector to maintain the growth pace achieved in the first three quarters (9%–9.98% YoY);
• Regarding public investment, state budget capital disbursement in October reached VND 91.029 trillion, up 5.09% MoM and 33.26% YoY. Cumulatively over 10M2025, the total disbursed amount reached VND 640.163 trillion, fulfilling over 70% of the annual plan, and marking a 29.1% YoY increase. With VND 245.6 trillion remaining to be disbursed in the last two months—lower than the actual amount in 2023—public investment disbursement in 2025 is expected to achieve 100% of the annual target;
• CPI rose 3.25% YoY in October. In the last two months of 2025, several supporting factors are helping to contain inflation, including: pork prices falling by over 17% YoY in October and early November (reducing pressure from the food group); rice prices down 30.8% YoY in October and still 28.6% YoY lower in early November (supporting the cereals group); tuition fee exemptions from the 2025–2026 academic year; and continued price declines in the post and telecommunications group. We maintain our forecast that the full-year CPI will rise only 3.5–4%, lower than the Government’s target range of 4.5–5%;
• As of November 4, 2025, the VND had depreciated 3.17% YTD, with a 0.42% MoM decline in October alone. We believe the current movements in the USD/VND exchange rate remain under control, but this will be a factor to monitor, as it may influence the State Bank of Vietnam’s monetary policy operations in the coming period.

Stock market

• The market showed a positive performance in early October, driven by expectations of an upgrade in Vietnam’s market classification. However, in the second half of the month, the market experienced a correction due to pressure from exchange rate fluctuations and rising interest rates.
• By the end of October, VN-Index stood at 1,639.65 points, down 22.05 points (-1.33%) compared to the end of September.
• The average daily trading value in October reached VND 36,814 billion, down 2.06% compared to September’s average level. Large-cap groups continued to attract capital inflows, particularly the real estate sector.
• Foreign investors continued to be net sellers in October, following the same trend as other EMs.
• The market outlook for the year-end period remains positive, supported by policies promoting economic growth, strong credit growth, accelerated public investment disbursement, and expected faster corporate profit growth in the final quarter. However, market movements in November will face some short-term concerns, such as pressure on the exchange rate, a slight increase in deposit interest rates (although still at a low level overall), weakening domestic cash flow, and continued net selling by foreign investors.