Macroeconomy

• More growth stimulants needed for every pillar: In the final year of the current administration, policies will be in the direction of supporting growth, public investment motivation will be promoted, private investment and consumption are expected to recover, and FDI attraction will continue to be maintained. Exports may grow slower than 15% in 2024;
• Inflation: Inflation is not a risk in 2025. CPI is forecast to increase by 3-3.3% YoY;
• Exchange rate: Pressure from the high anchored USD-DXY may continue to put pressure on the VND. However, the positive point is that the USD-VND interest rate differential is trending positive again. The pressure on the Vietnamese dong will ease somewhat when the Fed lowers interest rates further in 2025;
• Monetary policy: Although pressure to support growth is taxing, there is not much room left as foreign exchange reserves have fallen deeply. The SBV is likely to continue to flexibly use the OMO channel in 2025 as the main tool in monetary policy management.

Stock market

• VnIndex increased in 2024 due to the positive contribution of the Banking sector. However, without a strong increase of domestic cashflow while foreign investors increase selling pressure, VnIndex failed to breakthrough 1,300 threshold.
• The prospect of upgrading the rating of the Vietnam stock market has made an important step after the Ministry of Finance officially approved Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC allowing foreign investors to buy securities without fully deposit cash in the investing account. The market-upgrade investment theme will be a driving factor for the stock market in 2025.
• Domestic cash flow peaked in 2021 due to low interest rates environment, a lack of other investment channels during the Covid period, and technology adaptation enabling a new wave of investors to enter the market. From mid-2024, cash flows were gradually withdrawn from the market due to stock issuances and divestment in other investment channels. In 2025, we can expect more cash flow injection following the market’s upgrade.
• Vietnam's market valuation is still attractive compared to other markets.
• Moving into 2025, these favorable conditions are expected to remain, along with the anticipated market’s upgrade investment topic, the stock market is likely to record possitive performance. VnIndex is expected to reach1400-1450 in 2025.