Amid intensifying domestic competition, trade defense risks in key export markets, and potential interest rate hikes driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, we revise our FY25–26 PAT forecast downward for HSG to VND 515 bn (from VND 577 bn in our previous 2026 Coated Steel Sector Update). Meanwhile, we lower our target P/E to 15.0x from 17.0x and EV/EBITDA to 8.0x from 9.0x. Accordingly, the target price is adjusted to VND16,500/share from VND17,300/share. We maintain our NEUTRAL rating on HSG, with an upside of +11.5%.

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