Unpredictable tariff trends and a nascent recovery in the domestic real estate market meant ACG's business performance lacked significant improvement in the first half of 2025. However, BVSC expects brighter business outlook for the company in 2H2025 and 2026. Specifically, the domestic market is the key, as ACG’s peak sales will concentrate in late 2025 and until 2027. Given its market leader position in the mid-and-high-end segment, along with a nationwide distribution network, ACG’s domestic segment is expected to thrive and act as the key contributor to the company’s performance. On the export side, Vietnam is subjected to relatively competitive tariff rates against other nations. Moreover, due to its low exposure to the US market, ACG can easily shift to other markets and mitigate the impact of the US market.

ACG has maintained a consistent cash dividend policy for years, with a payout ratio ranging 15-16%/year. BVSC expects that ACG will maintain its cash dividend policy with a payout ratio of 16% in the following years. The respective dividend yield is 4.1%, which is a plus when investing in this stock.

Combining two valuation methods, DCF-FCFF and PER, BVSC estimates ACG’s fair value at VND47,300/share, implying an upside of +32% from the market price on September 22, 2025 (excluding dividend yield). Rating OUTPERFORM.

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